Research
Research
Rethinking Keynesian Fiscal Stimulus - Video. Phillips Lecture at the LSE, April 2, 2025. (The paper is in progress.)
Do Temporary Cash Transfers Stimulate the Macroeconomy? Evidence from Four Case Studies. Nov. 2024 Mundell-Fleming Lecture, forthcoming IMF Economic Review.
Why Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII? with Shigeru Fujita and Tal Roded, revised October 2024.
How Much will Global Warming Cool Global Growth? with Ishan Nath and Pete Klenow, revised March 2025.
Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates, with Jacob Orchard and Johannes Wieland, forthcoming Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Using Macro Counterfactuals to Assess Plausibility: An Illustration Using the 2001 Rebate MPCs, with Jacob Orchard and Johannes Wieland, forthcoming Economic Journal. Presented by Valerie Ramey as the Economic Journal Lecture "Do They Add Up? Using Macro Counterfactuals to Assess Micro Estimates and Macro Models" at the 2023 Royal Economic Society Conference.
Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock? with Nadav Ben Zeev and Sarah Zubairy. This is the longer working paper version of the AEA P&P , May 2023.
Replication files for published paper and online appendix
Data and codes for working paper version: Main Data (Excel) Code for working paper local projection results (Stata)
FAIR multipliers for Figure 4 comparison (Excel) Code for quadratic vs. absolute value test (Stata) Code for Hall-Barro-Redlick transformation results (Stata)
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment, 2021, Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment eds. Edward L. Glaeser and James M. Poterba, University of Chicago Press. Supplemental Appendix Data and Programs
Secular Stagnation or Technology Lull? Journal of Policy Modeling, July-August 2020.
The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup, with Christopher J. Nekarda, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking: 50th Anniversary Issue , December 2020.
Supplemental Appendix November 2013 version (contains industry-level results) June 2010 version Markup series (Excel) Markup series (Stata dataset) Data and Programs
Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research? Journal of Economic Perspectives. Spring 2019. Data and Programs
Introduction to Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth with Charles Hulten. Charles R. Hulten and Valerie A. Ramey, eds. NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 77. University of Chicago Press, 2019.
Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data with Sarah Zubairy, April 2018 Journal of Political Economy .
Supplementary Appendix Defense Narrative Data and Programs
Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation published in the 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics. (This version includes a few corrigenda.)
Postscript to my Handbook Chapter (This short note includes corrections, clarifications, revised thinking and summaries of some important subsequent research.)
Data and Programs: Monetary Shocks Government Spending Shocks Tax Shocks Technology Shocks
News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries with Rabah Arezki and Liugang Sheng, February 2017 Quarterly Journal of Economics .
Supplementary Appendix Empirical programs and data Model programs
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data with Michael Owyang and Sarah Zubairy, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2013. Data and programs
Government Spending and Private Activity, 2013, Fiscal Policy After the Financial Crisis eds. Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, University of Chicago Press.
The Impact of Hours Measures on the Trend and Cycle Behavior of Labor Productivity , revised July 2012.
Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy? Journal of Economic Literature, September 2011.
Is there a "Tiger Mother" Effect? Time Use Across Ethnic Groups revised March 2011.
Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing, Quarterly Journal of Economics February 2011.
Stata program for VARs using Ramey-Shapiro dates
Stata program for VARs using news series 1939-2008
Stata program for VARs using Survey of Professional Forecaster Shocks
CSV file used by the VAR programs (Updated 1/10/2013 to renormalize the GDP deflator so that it is equal to the ratio of nominal to real GDP.)
Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending with Christopher J. Nekarda, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics , January 2011.
Replication Data and Programs Data Construction Files
Oil, Automobiles and the U.S. Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed? with Daniel J. Vine, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010.
The Rug Rat Race with Garey Ramey, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2010. Data and Programs
Measures of Per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate with Neville Francis, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Sept. 2009.
Latest BLS data on quarterly total hours and employment Updated regularly by the BLS.
A Century of Work and Leisure with Neville Francis, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics, July 2009. Winner of the "Best Paper Prize".
Annual Data on Work, Home Production, Schooling and Leisure by Demographic Group, 1900-2005
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups
Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century United States, The Journal of Economic History , March 2009.
Annual Data on Home Production by Key Group, 1900 - 2000
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups
Why Do Computers Depreciate? with Michael Geske and Matthew D. Shapiro Hard to Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches , University of Chicago Press, 2007.
How Much has Leisure Really Increased Since 1965? January 2007.
Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, American Economic Review , December 2006.
Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead? Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Revisited with Neville Francis, Journal of Monetary Economics Nov. 2005. Theory appendix
Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, Revised March 11, 2004. Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends? with Daniel J. Vine, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking Oct. 2004.
The Source of Historical Fluctuations with Neville Francis, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.
Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings with Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of Political Economy, Oct. 2001.
The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission with Marvin J. Barth, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001. Errata
Market Responses to Interindustry Wage Differentials with George J. Borjas, July 2000.
Inventories with Kenneth D. West, Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999.
Capital Churning with Matthew D. Shapiro, July 1998.
Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending with Matthew D. Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June 1998.
Cross Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth with Garey Ramey, American Economic Review, Dec. 1995. Data on Cross-Country Volatility and Growth
Foreign Competition, Market Power and Wage Inequality with George J. Borjas, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, Nov. 1995, pp. 1075-1110.
Liquidity Constraints and Intertemporal Consumer Optimization: Theory and Evidence from Durable Goods with Eun Young Chah and Ross M. Starr, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Feb. 1995.
Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level with Timothy F. Bresnahan, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Aug. 1994. Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
The Relationship between Wage Inequality and Trade with George J. Borjas in The Changing Distribution of Income in an Open U.S. Economy eds. J.H. Bergstrand, T.F. Cosimano, J.W. Houck and R.G. Sheehan, 1994.
Time Series Evidence on the Sources of Trends in Wage Inequality with George J. Borjas, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1994.
How Important is the Credit Channel in the Transmission of Monetary Policy?, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Dec. 1993.
Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Timothy F. Bresnahan, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.
Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
The Source of Fluctuations in Money: Evidence from Trade Credit , Journal of Monetary Economics, Nov. 1992.
Technology Commitment and the Cost of Business Cycles with Garey Ramey June 1991.
Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories, Journal of Political Economy, Apr. 1991.
Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, June 1989.
The Effects of Market Organization on Conspiracies in Restraint of Trade, with R. Mark Isaac and Arlington Williams, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, June 1984.
Some of this material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers 1658796, 0617219, 0213089, SBR-9617437, and SES 90-22947. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
Do Temporary Cash Transfers Stimulate the Macroeconomy? Evidence from Four Case Studies, forthcoming IMF Economic Review. This paper is based on my November 2024 Mundell-Fleming Lecture.
Why Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII? with Shigeru Fujita and Tal Roded, revised October 2024.
Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates with Jacob Orchard and Johannes Wieland, forthcoming Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Using Macro Counterfactuals to Assess Plausibility: An Illustration Using the 2001 Rebate MPCs with Jacob Orchard and Johannes Wieland, forthcoming Economic Journal. This work was presented by Valerie Ramey as the Economic Journal Lecture "Do They Add Up? Using Macro Counterfactuals to Assess Micro Estimates and Macro Models" at the 2023 Royal Economic Society Conference.
Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock? with Nadav Ben Zeev and Sarah Zubairy. This is the longer working paper version of the forthcoming AEA P&P , March 2023.
Replication files for published paper and online appendix
Data and codes specific to working paper version: Main Data (Excel) Code for working paper local projection results (Stata)
FAIR multipliers for Figure 4 comparison (Excel)
Code for quadratic vs. absolute value test (Stata) Code for Hall-Barro-Redlick transformation robustness check (Stata)
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment, 2021, Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment eds. Edward L. Glaeser and James M. Poterba, University of Chicago Press. Supplemental Appendix Data and Programs
Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research? Journal of Economic Perspectives. Spring 2019. Data and Programs
Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data with Sarah Zubairy, April 2018 Journal of Political Economy.
Supplementary Appendix Defense Narrative Data and Programs
Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation published in the 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics. (This version includes a few corrigenda.)
Postscript to my Handbook Chapter March 2021. (This short note includes corrections, clarifications, revised thinking and summaries of some important subsequent research.)
Data and Programs: Monetary Shocks Government Spending Shocks Tax Shocks Technology Shocks
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data with Michael Owyang and Sarah Zubairy, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2013. Data and programs
Government Spending and Private Activity, 2013, Fiscal Policy After the Financial Crisis eds. Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, University of Chicago Press.
Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy? Journal of Economic Literature, September 2011.
Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing , Quarterly Journal of Economics February 2011.
Stata program for VARs using Ramey-Shapiro dates
Stata program for VARs using news series 1939-2008
Stata program for VARs using Survey of Professional Forecaster Shocks
CSV file used by the VAR programs (Updated 1/10/2013 to renormalize the GDP deflator so that it is equal to the ratio of nominal to real GDP.)
Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending with Christopher J. Nekarda, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics , January 2011.
Replication Data and Programs Data Construction Files
Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending with Matthew D. Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June 1998.
Summary of my time use research in the NBER Reporter
Is there a "Tiger Mother" Effect? Time Use Across Ethnic Groups revised March 2011.
The Rug Rat Race with Garey Ramey, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2010. Data and Programs
A Century of Work and Leisure with Neville Francis, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics, July 2009. Winner of the "Best Paper Prize"
Annual Data on Work, Home Production, Schooling and Leisure by Demographic Group, 1900-2005
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups
Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century United States, The Journal of Economic History , March 2009.
Annual Data on Home Production by Key Group, 1900 - 2000
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups
How Much has Leisure Really Increased Since 1965? January 2007
Why Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII? with Shigeru Fujita and Tal Roded, revised October 2024.
Secular Stagnation or Technology Lull? , Journal of Policy Modeling, July-August 2020.
The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup with Christopher J. Nekarda, forthcoming Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking: 50th Anniversary Issue .
Supplemental Appendix November 2013 version (contains industry-level results) June 2010 version Markup series (Excel) Markup series (Stata dataset) Data and Programs
Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation published in the 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics. (This version includes a few corrigenda.)
Postscript to my Handbook Chapter March 2021. (This short note includes corrections, clarifications, revised thinking and summaries of some important subsequent research)
Data and Programs: Monetary Shocks Government Spending Shocks Tax Shocks Technology Shocks
News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries with Rabah Arezki and Liugang Sheng, February 2017 Quarterly Journal of Economics .
Supplementary Appendix Empirical programs and data Model programs
The Impact of Hours Measures on the Trend and Cycle Behavior of Labor Productivity, revised July 2012.
Measures of Per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate with Neville Francis, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Sept. 2009.
Latest BLS data on quarterly total hours and employment Updated regularly by the BLS.
Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead? Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Revisited with Neville Francis, Journal of Monetary Economics Nov. 2005. Theory appendix
Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, Revised March 11, 2004. Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
The Source of Historical Fluctuations with Neville Francis, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.
Cross Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth with Garey Ramey, American Economic Review, Dec. 1995. Data on Cross-Country Volatility and Growth
Technology Commitment and the Cost of Business Cycles with Garey Ramey June 1991.
Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories, Journal of Political Economy, Apr. 1991.
Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, June 1989.
Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level with Timothy F. Bresnahan, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Aug. 1994. Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
How Much will Global Warming Cool Global Growth? with Ishan Nath and Pete Klenow, revised March 2025.
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment, revised November 2020. Supplemental Appendix Data and Programs
Secular Stagnation or Technology Lull? , Journal of Policy Modeling, July-August 2020.
Introduction to Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth with Charles Hulten. Charles R. Hulten and Valerie A. Ramey, eds. NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 77. University of Chicago Press, 2019.
A Century of Work and Leisure with Neville Francis, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics, July 2009. Winner of the "Best Paper Prize".
Annual Data on Work, Home Production, Schooling and Leisure by Demographic Group, 1900-2005
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups
Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century United States, The Journal of Economic History , March 2009.
Annual Data on Home Production by Key Group, 1900 - 2000
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups
How Much has Leisure Really Increased Since 1965? January 2007
The Source of Historical Fluctuations with Neville Francis, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.
Cross Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth with Garey Ramey, American Economic Review, Dec. 1995. Data on Cross-Country Volatility and Growth
Technology Commitment and the Cost of Business Cycles with Garey Ramey June 1991
Oil, Automobiles and the U.S. Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed? with Daniel J. Vine, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010.
Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, American Economic Review , December 2006.
Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, Revised March 11, 2004. Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level with Timothy F. Bresnahan, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Aug. 1994. Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Timothy F. Bresnahan, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.
News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries with Rabah Arezki and Liugang Sheng, February 2017 Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Supplementary Appendix Empirical programs and data Model programs
Discussion of Baumeister and Kilian "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2017.
Oil, Automobiles and the U.S. Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed? with Daniel J. Vine, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010.
Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Timothy F. Bresnahan, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.
Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, American Economic Review , December 2006.
Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, Revised March 11, 2004. Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends? with Daniel J. Vine, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking Oct. 2004.
Inventories with Kenneth D. West, Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999.
Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Timothy F. Bresnahan, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.
Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data
Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories, Journal of Political Economy, Apr. 1991.
Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, June 1989.
Why Do Computers Depreciate? with Michael Geske and Matthew D. Shapiro Hard to Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches , University of Chicago Press, 2007.
Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings with Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of Political Economy, Oct. 2001.
Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending with Matthew D. Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June 1998.
Capital Churning with Matthew D. Shapiro, July 1998.
The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup with Christopher J. Nekarda, forthcoming Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking: 50th Anniversary Issue.
Supplemental Appendix November 2013 version (contains industry-level results) June 2010 version Markup series (Excel) Markup series (Stata dataset) Data and Programs
Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation published in the 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics. (This version includes a few corrigenda.)
Postscript to my Handbook Chapter March 2021. (This short note includes corrections, clarifications, revised thinking and summaries of some important subsequent research)
Data and Programs: Monetary Shocks Government Spending Shocks Tax Shocks Technology Shocks
The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission with Marvin J. Barth, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001. Errata
How Important is the Credit Channel in the Transmission of Monetary Policy?, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Dec. 1993.
The Source of Fluctuations in Money: Evidence from Trade Credit, Journal of Monetary Economics, Nov. 1992.
Market Responses to Interindustry Wage Differentials with George J. Borjas, July 2000.
Foreign Competition, Market Power and Wage Inequality with George J. Borjas, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, Nov. 1995, pp. 1075-1110.
The Relationship between Wage Inequality and Trade with George J. Borjas in The Changing Distribution of Income in an Open U.S. Economy eds. J.H. Bergstrand, T.F. Cosimano, J.W. Houck and R.G. Sheehan, 1994.
Time Series Evidence on the Sources of Trends in Wage Inequality with George J. Borjas, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1994.
A Brief History of the Search and Matching Literature (updated February 22, 2011)
Liquidity Constraints and Intertemporal Consumer Optimization: Theory and Evidence from Durable Goods with Eun Young Chah and Ross M. Starr, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Feb. 1995.
The Effects of Market Organization on Conspiracies in Restraint of Trade, with R. Mark Isaac and Arlington Williams, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, June 1984.